Travel isn’t exactly top of mind at the moment given international and interstate travel restrictions. But most people would have walked through a Business Class cabin on the way back to an Economy Class seat and wished they were flying at the pointy end at some stage (myself included).
I often get asked for frequent flyer points advice a few months out from travel, by which time it is too late to book those rare premium award seats to Europe and the US. Not to mention addressing the gap between the current and required points balances to make that first trip up front a reality.
Given many people are now spending a lot more time at home, now is the perfect time to figure out your points budget and required run rate so you’re ready to snap up those premium award seats once international travel opens up again.
In this post:
IATA Forecasts Travel To Recover In 2023
The International Airline Transport Association (IATA) has recently updated its forecasts around international travel:
The recovery in short haul travel is still expected to happen faster than for long haul travel. As a result, passenger numbers will recover faster than traffic measured in RPKs. Recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels, however, will also slide by a year from 2022 to 2023. For 2020, global passenger numbers (enplanements) are expected to decline by 55% compared to 2019, worsened from the April forecast of 46%.
I hope that international travel has returned to a semblance of normalcy by 2022, at which time one’s frequent flyer points will become useful again.
Points Budget: How Many Points Will I Need?
The most common aspirational premium award is to Europe, followed by the US.
Qantas Frequent Flyer uses a distance based chart with 10 zones and a roundtrip Business Class award from Sydney to London starts at around 290,000 points.
Consult our guide on maximising value from the Qantas award chart, with both First and Business Class award charts for your convenience.
Required Run Rate: How Many Credit Cards Will I Need To Apply For?
With credit card sign on bonuses offering up to 100,000 Qantas points and the ability to earn points by actually flying severely curtailed for the foreseeable future, the primary method of reaching your points budget is through new credit cards.
Given you can apply for 3 to 4 new credit cards per year, it will take most people 12-18 months to earn enough points for the Business Class round trip to Europe from a standing start.
Now that is per person, so if you are looking to bring a family of 4 your lead time will be multiplied. Which is why now is the time to start building up your points balance.
To borrow a cricketing term: What’s the required run rate for your dream trip?
You Can Book Award Flights About 10 Months Before Travel
Most frequent flyer programs make award bookings available around 10 months before travel.
Qantas staggers the release dates based on your Frequent Flyer status:
| Frequent Flyer Status | Award Seats Released |
| Platinum & Gold | 353 |
| Silver | 323 |
| Bronze | 297 |
So let’s say you apply for your first new credit card today. You’d have enough points for one roundtrip to Europe by September 2021 and would be in the booking window for Summer 2022.
Opportunities For Families
When the global economy is strong and growing, the demand for premium cabin seats is high. With little need to clear unsold seats, there are few seats released for frequent flyer redemptions.
Given it will take a few years for the global economy to recover from COVID-19, I expect there to be a sweet spot for premium cabin redemptions in 2022 for families.
Normally, the only time you’ll see 4 seats in Business Class available for award redemption is when an airline launches a brand new route. But you need to have the points already in your account to be able to book at short notice.
Bottom Line
While international travel isn’t top of mind at present, now is the perfect time to start building up your frequent flyer points balance using credit card sign up bonuses.
Figure out your personal Points Budget and Required Run Rate so you’re ready to book that dream Business or First Class trip when international borders reopen.
