With the introduction of multiple COVID-19 vaccines and vaccination programs rolling out across the world, the question around when can we travel overseas again is at the top of eager traveller’s minds.
There have been ‘travel corridors’ mooted between Australia and New Zealand, and potentially Asian ports like Hong Kong and Singapore as early destinations for travel.
But before international travel can resume at scale, I believe we need to meet three conditions.
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Australian Borders Open Without Quarantine
Currently Australia requires all international arrivals to complete 14 day quarantine in a supervised hotel setting. Combined with potential quarantine requirements at international destinations, you are looking at spending almost all of your four weeks annual leave locked in a hotel room.
Before international travel is practical for leisure travel, we’ll need to see Australia’s borders opened without a quarantine requirement. There may be a stage where returning Australian residents are able to quarantine at home, or reduced quarantine requirements for people who have been vaccinated.
Naturally, the gradual reopening will be done to low risk destinations first so I wouldn’t expect the US, UK or Europe to be in the first tranche of destinations.
Majority of Australians Have Been Vaccinated
With vaccine efficacy of between 70% (AstraZeneca) and 90% (Pfizer), the immunisation of 25 million Australians will make international travel safer and realistic.
Qantas have already stated that passengers travelling overseas will be required to prove their vaccination status before being allowed to travel.
The rollout is expected to run from March to October 2021 so by Christmas you’d expect the Australian population to be ready to travel by the end of the year.
International Travel Insurance Is Available
As the old saying goes ‘if you can’t afford travel insurance, you can’t afford to travel’. In our unique COVID world, travel insurance companies have withdrawn their products from sale and certain airlines including Emirates are offering insurance as part of the airfare.
Given how expensive medical treatment can be overseas, the availability of comprehensive international travel insurance that covers COVID will be a key milestone.
Some insurance companies including Cover More have announced their policies now do cover COVID-19 but with exclusions for cruise ships.
So When Can We Travel Overseas Again?
While there are many unknowns at the moment, I expect that international travel will be possible for most Australians by the end of 2021 so families can be reunited for Christmas.
Qantas has just opened bookings for international routes from mid-2021 while the IATA projects travel to only return to 2019 levels in 2024.
Bottom Line
With many key destinations like the UK and US scrambling to immunize their populations at present to help control their outbreaks, it will take many months before Australia will open its borders.
Once immunisation is complete and infection rates are low, the quarantine requirements will be eased toward the end of 2021 and international travel insurance will once again be available.
My expectation is limited international travel will return by the end of 2021 but will focus on domestic travel like the Indian Pacific this year.
